Tropical Storm Talim to affect all of Taiwan by Sept. 14

Tropical Storm Talim is rapidly gaining in size and intensity and is currently on a path to strike Hualien or Taitung

CWB.

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) -- Tropical storm Talim is rapidly increasing in size and strength and is heading on a path to hit Taiwan directly sometime between Wednesday noon and Thursday, with an impact somewhere between Hualien and Taitung becoming more likely, according to the Central Weather Bureau (CWB).

Tropical Storm Talim was located 17.7 degrees North and 136.4 degrees East, which is about 1,870 kilometers east-southeast of Taiwan's southernmost tip, Eluanbi, and was moving west-northwest at a speed of 29 kilometers per hour, with wind speeds of 126 kilometers per hour, according to the CWB.

Yesterday, the radius of the storm was 80 kilometers, during the evening it increased to 100 kilometers, and today it has reached 150 kilometers, and is continuing to grow in size as well as strength. 

The CWB said the likelihood that Talim will make impact in Taiwan is very high, with it probably making landfall some time between midday Wednesday and Thursday. When Talim hits Taiwan, heavy rain and strong winds will be seen throughout the country as it is blanketed by the storm. 

Currently, the computer models of various weather agencies are providing highly differing predictions of Talim's path. The U.S. prediction is that it will hit Hualien, the European model suggests it will hit Taitung, and the China Meteorological Administration forecasts a landing on the Hengchun Peninsula. 

Daniel Wu (吳德榮), a prominent weather expert who teaches at National Central University (中央大學), said that despite the three very different models, the probability of a northern approach has increased with an landing point somewhere between Hualien and Taitung, reported UDN. However, more time will be needed to get a more accurate fix on its landing point, said Wu.
Bron: https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3250579 

 

Half a million people to be evacuated as typhoon #Talim set to hit southeastern China https://t.co/mXVmQcaLln

— SCMP News (@SCMP_News) 11 september 2017

Weird structure. #Talim #lannieph #microwave #wx pic.twitter.com/4leMTh8Zih

— Emmanuel (@WXappraiser) 11 september 2017

TS #Talim has 45mph winds, and it should hit Taiwan on Wednesday with 135, and China on Thursday with 110. pic.twitter.com/U1hKwLSdvO

— Kal Tellefsen (@kal_tellefsen) 10 september 2017

Typhoon Talim to strike Taiwan, eastern China with damaging winds and flooding

A strengthening tropical system has its eyes set on Taiwan and eastern China during the second half of this week.

Talim is currently a typhoon about 400 miles east of Taiwan. Further intensification is expected as Talim tracks to the northwest towards Taiwan through late Wednesday.

“Favorable environmental conditions along the path of Talim will allow the typhoon to become very intense before reaching Taiwan,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty said.

Warm water will provide the fuel for Talim to strengthen over the coming days. Wind shear, which is the change in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere, will also be favorable for proper venting of the system.

Rough seas are expected around Talim over the next few days as the system stirs the ocean. Shipping interests in the area will need to reroute around the storm. Surf along Taiwan’s northern and eastern coast will increase through the next couple of days.

Wind and rain will begin to increase across northern Taiwan late Wednesday as Talim approaches from the east. The most intense rain and wind across this area will occur Wednesday night into Thursday as Talim’s center passes over or just to the north of Taiwan.


Rainfall of 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) will be possible across northern Taiwan, including Taipei, which will lead to flooding. Localized higher amounts of up to 380 mm (15 inches) will be possible, especially across the higher terrain.

Downed trees and road washouts will lead to travel disruptions well after the storm leaves the area.

Residents will need to watch out for mudslides which could be triggered by the heavy rain.

Far southern Taiwan will likely escape most of Talim’s wrath as the system tracks far enough north. However, rough seas and minor coastal flooding in low-lying areas will be possible. 
Beyond Taiwan, Talim is expected to curve northward and eventually northeastward Thursday and Friday tracking through or near eastern China.

“There is some question as to when exactly this curve will occur which has implications on Talim’s impacts on China,” Douty said.

Talim will likely weaken as it interacts with Taiwan, but it will still be a dangerous storm.

If Talim is slower to turn, then it will take a track farther into eastern China, spreading flooding rain and gusty winds inland across Fujian, Zhejiang and Jiangsu.

However, if Talim turns quicker, then heavy rain and gusty winds will be more confined closer to the coast, sparing inland areas from the worst impacts.

In either case, Shanghai will be at risk for heavy rain and gusty winds, both of which could lead to life-threatening conditions.

Uncertainty largely increases heading into the weekend. However, AccuWeather meteorologists are concerned Talim may track heavy rain into Japan or South Korea Saturday and Sunday.

The state of Talim and the extent of impacts after it moves away from China will ultimately depend on when Talim makes the turn and how long it will be over water.

Residents and those with interest in Japan and South Korea should continue monitoring the progression of Talim over the next few days.
Bron: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/talim-to-strike-taiwan-eastern-china-with-damaging-winds-and-flooding/70002697