Estofex heeft een level 3 uitgegeven voor delen van Duitsland, Polen en Litouwen. Aangezien dit een potentieel gevaarlijke situatie betreft, openen we hiervoor een topic. We houden je hier zeker up to date!

Graag hier in dit topic enkel berichtgeving (steeds met bronvermelding & credits voor de foto's) of bespreking van de kans.


Credits: Estofex

Stukje uit de tekst van Estofex wat betreft de level 3 gebieden:

.... Germany and NW Poland .....
Ongoing convective activity from the previous night will create a shield of clouds over northern Germany in the morning that is expected to become less thick until 12z. The highly unstable tropical air mass at the leading edge of the ridge, with elevated mixed layer, will create large amounts of MLCAPE up to 2000  3000 J/kg. A sharp gradient of mid-level geopotential will lead to enhanced DLS between 20-35 m/s, overlapping with high CAPE values. Widespread CI is expected in Germany along the main convergence zone where significant SREH0-3km indicate that most of the storms will become supercells able to produce very large hail and tornadoes. Diurnal heating and local convergence zones will first provide enough lift for discrete cells to form and then organize into clusters (MCS). Several scenarios from high-resolution models suggest the development of a QLCS, with NE-ward bowing structures that will be capable of producing severe to damaging wind gusts. Inside level 3 area, veering wind profiles with strong LLS configuration and very low LCLs increase the potential of tornadogenesis, with some strong tornadoes (F2 or stronger). During the night, a short-wave trough will provide additional lift and a new round of multicellular systems is expected to cross N Germany, entering NW Poland. Excessive precipitation, severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be the main threats. In northern parts of Poland, diurnal heating seems that will not be able to provide enough lift, due to note-worthy CIN values, this is why a level 3 was excluded.

..... NE Poland, Kaliningrad Oblast and Lithuania .....
This area of interest is another hot-spot for severe DMC during Tuesday. Between 12z and 15z, discrete storm cells can become supercells as DLS will exceed 20 m/s and forecast hodographs show LL air masses with strong helicity and shear. These storms will be able to produce large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes. A second round of severe storms is expected during the night, as a MCS from the Baltic Sea is forecast to cross the area, ahead of the short-wave trough axis. Very steep lapse rates can pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts even during the night, but the main threat will be excessive precipitation as training convection is simulated by most NWP models. | Gewijzigd: 1 augustus 2017, 00:33 uur, door Sven

Beeldje van deze voormiddag (de level 3 van estofex is voor later deze dag voor alle duidelijkheid):

 

Aufzug der #Gewitter-linie heute Morgen in #Ernstthal #Sonneberg #Thueringen @unwetteralarm @Kachelmannwettr @mdr_th @freieswort @JZ_Lpz pic.twitter.com/KnAbN3WTnw

— Thür Storm Chaser (@stormchaserth) 1 augustus 2017

 

Kurz vor #Dresden aktuell @Kachelmannwettr @unwetteralarm @severeweatherEU @JZ_Lpz @WetterOnline pic.twitter.com/NUApfEn0a3

— Markus Weggässer (@markus_tsc) 1 augustus 2017

Radar zeigt #Hookecho in Mittelfranken um 21:30 Uhr. Im Raum Happurg - Offenhausen. Rotierende #Superzelle. Möglichkeit v. #Tornado pic.twitter.com/ww9UIbozi3

— Karsten Schwanke (@KSchwanke) 1 augustus 2017