Vandaag in de VS een gebied met zware buien in de staten Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, arkansas en Missouri. In de staat Oklahoma is de grootste kans op een of meerdere tornado's aanwezig 10%. Naast de kans op tornado's produceren de buien vandaag lokaal ook zware regenval, hagelbuien en zware windstoten. Het grootste gevaar vandaag is dat de tornado's waarschijnlijk pas rond of na zonsondergang ontstaan en dus mogelijk in het donker voor komen wat grote risico's met zich mee brengt.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131710Z - 131915Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK.
INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INCREASING DURING THE
EARLY EVENING. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND
NWRN TX. MOIST AXIS WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE IN
WARM SECTOR BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTING AN
AXIS OF 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE
FURTHER AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. VISIBLE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN
VICINITY OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK AS
WELL AS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO S-CNTRL OK WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM FWD AND OKC INDICATED A
MODEST INVERSION AROUND 750 MB...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW
ONLY A WEAK CAP REMAINING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY
SOON DEVELOP IN THIS REGION. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT
SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VEERING AND WEAKENING
AS PRIMARY LLJ SHIFTS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH ERN SD. THIS MAY DELAY A MORE
ROBUST TORNADO THREAT UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THE LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
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Beetje kapot!