A large upper-level trough is currently strengthening and advancing east over the Rocky Mountains, eventually bringing a threat for severe thunderstorms to portions of the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. Eastern Kansas into Missouri, Iowa and Illinois all stand the chance of seeing severe thunderstorms beginning late this afternoon. Although forecast models are still suggest that a strong cap should suppress convective initiation for most of the day over a large part of the risk area, low-level moisture will continue to stream into the region, resulting in modest to high instability; strong directional wind shear over this area suggests that the initial mode for any storms that do fire should be supercellular. Strong tornadoes and extremely large hail will be possible with these storms, along with damaging winds. As the storm system evolves and shifts eastward (progression illustrated by 500mb winds, above), the wind fields will intensify substantially but should be mostly unidirectional, bringing what at this time would appear to be a major damaging wind threat to a wide area near and east of the Mississippi River on Monday. Lower-level wind fields are currently not matching up with the upper level winds in a way that would suggest a major tornado outbreak--a few days ago, forecast models were showing a near-apocalyptic scenario unfolding for the mid-South, but that does not appear to be what residents will have to be dealing with at this time. Regardless, lines of intense severe thunderstorms capable of very damaging winds do seem likely, and tornadoes will still be possible overnight Sunday throughout the day on Monday, so residents of these areas are encouraged to carefully monitor local outlooks and advisories for the latest. TVN will be chasing today and possibly Monday, and a number of chasers will be streaming on the Live page as well, so be sure to check out what's happening in real-time!

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