Aangezien ze vanaf vanmiddag pas alarm geven?
Ik zou denken dat het systeem vroeger dan verwacht is overgetrokken en de temperatuur op sommige plaatsen niet hoog genoeg is kunnen klimmen voor extreem weer.
Die gedachte deel ik. Er was hier weinig tot niks aan de hand en ik denk ook niet dat er nog wat gaat ontwikkelen.
11:54:20 12-07-10 23 BRAN 2 EXTREEM WEER (Regionaal/Cluster: regionaal) (.GRIP: .grip 2-/-copi) MKB-EXTREEM WEER ONBEKEND VENLO (VENL)
1001980 BRW Limburg-Noord
1001979 BRW Limburg-Noord
1001798 BRW Limburg-Noord
1001795 BRW Limburg-Noord
1001794 BRW Limburg-Noord ( HSINF )
1001793 BRW Limburg-Noord ( KWM )
1001783 BRW Limburg-Noord ( HOvD Noord )
1001778 BRW Limburg-Noord ( Sector Voorlichting )
1001775 BRW Limburg-Noord ( RCvD )
1001771 BRW Limburg-Noord ( Centralisten )
1001500 BRW Limburg-Noord ( Regionaal Proefalarm )
1001174 BRW Limburg-Noord
DISCUSSION
Benelux, northwestern and northern Germany, western Denmark...
A strong bowing MCS has formed over central France overnight.This system is expected to move quickly NNEward. As the boundary layer warms ahead of this system, the chances of strong and extreme wind gusts will increase. Per 00 and 06 UTC soundings about 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE should become available i this air-mass.
Moreover, a few elevated supercells have formed over the Benelux. As forcing by the upper trough increases, coverage of these storms will also increase. With strong helicity being in place and LCL heights being low, storms that become surface-based will have a risk of tornadoes, that may be strong. The threat will be highest roughly in a 100 km broad zone to the northwest of a line from Maastricht to Dortmund to Kiel, where surface winds are from the ENE and boundary layer temperatures moderate.
Both for the disctinct risk of extreme wind gusts with the bow echo, and for the risk of tornadoes an upgrade to level 3 was decided. Moreover, extreme precipitation and large hail will be possible.
It is expected that the bow echo will move into Denmark during the second half of the afternoon and during the evening. Probably the threat of extreme wind gusts will persist at least until the mid-evening, when the system moves into an area of less instability.
Aldus Estofex.