The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to produce six hurricanes, the noted Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team said on Tuesday. The storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 12 tropical storms and predicted that a weak El Nino event could form during that period.
El Nino, an unusual warming of water in the eastern Pacific Ocean, tends to diminish Atlantic hurricane activity by contributing to strong wind shear that can tear apart nascent storms. The CSU team lowered its forecast from December, when it predicted the 2009 season would see 14 storms and seven hurricanes.
The 2008 Atlantic season was one of the busiest on record, with 16 tropical storms. Eight of those became hurricanes, with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher. Last season spawned five hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. A record number of consecutive storms hit the United States.
But Cuba got the worst of last season's destruction. Three major hurricanes hit the Caribbean island, destroying or damaging nearly half a million homes, flattening sugar cane and tobacco fields and causing an estimated $10 billion damage. The long-term average for the Atlantic hurricane season is about 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes. But experts said a period of heightened Atlantic hurricane activity started around 1995 and was expected to last 25 to 40 years.
©Reuters