Voor vandaag 5% kans op tornado's in Arkansas. Omstandigheden zijn wel goed voor supercellen maar de verwachting is dat de basis ervan redelijk hoog zit, waardoor de kans op tornado's kleiner is.
Voor morgen worden er mogelijk clusters van buien verwacht, met mogelijk verscholen supercellen.
En voor zaterdag:
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FAVOR POTENTIAL
FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST
Voor vandaag 5% kans op tornado's in Arkansas. Omstandigheden zijn wel goed voor supercellen maar de verwachting is dat de basis ervan redelijk hoog zit, waardoor de kans op tornado's kleiner is.
Voor morgen worden er mogelijk clusters van buien verwacht, met mogelijk verscholen supercellen.
En voor zaterdag:
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FAVOR POTENTIAL
FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEAST
3 severe warnings nu...lijkt erop dat het gaat beginnen.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=eax...111&loop=no
LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR DATA CLEARLY DEPICT CENTER OF UPPER LOW OVER
CNTRL NEB...DIGGING SEWD IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE LOWER MS VALLEY A WEAK SFC LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG E-W FRONTAL ZONE OVER MS/AL EARLY...THEN TRACK EWD OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. SECONDARY SFC DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER SRN
GA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS INTENSE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERTAKE
TRAILING BOUNDARY.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS WILL READILY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
SFC LOW...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FROM NRN MS INTO
CNTRL GA WHERE 50-60KT LLJ SHOULD BE IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG SHARPENING COLD FRONT AS IT
BEGINS TO SURGE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES AND BECOMES A BIT MORE
CONVERGENT LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE WARM FRONT WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
ROBUST UPDRAFTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES
ROUGHLY 6.5 C/KM. EVEN SO A NARROW SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
COLD FRONT FROM SRN GA INTO NRN FL AS UPPER LOW ENHANCES
CONVERGENCE/ASCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE THE GREATEST THREATS WITH BOTH CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS.
Kosten begonnen met 80 dollar, 3 dollar voor paypal erbij, toen nog de belasting en toen van dollars naar euro's voor het Paypal tarief.... 80 euro.
Daniel
Daniel
Daniel
gelukkig krijgen we hier wel een beetje storm....
In Amerika: zondag heeft daar inmiddels een Severe Threat gekregen in de Day 4-8 outlook. Ook maandag en dinsdag hebben potentie maar dat is nog te onzeker.
Ik heb trouwens een twitter account aangemaakt: http://twitter.com/LukeSkywarner waar ik in elk geval updates over onweer in Amerika en NL zal plaatsen. Tijdens onweer in Amerika zal ik bijvoorbeeld proberen om daar links te plaatsen naar chasers die live aan het streamen zijn, maar ook websites van TV stations die op dat moment live te volgen zijn.
Daniel
Voor zaterdag is er al een 'Slight Risk' afgegeven, voor het oosten van Kansas en het noord oosten van Oklahoma, met 15% kans op zwaar onweer. Er zullen nu wel supercellen mogelijk zijn, maar met een hoge basis waardoor de kans op tornado's niet zo groot is.
Voor zondag zijn er ook aanwijzingen dat er zware buien mogelijk zijn en voor maandag ziet het er nog beter uit. Op deze dagen lijken vooral Oklahoma, Texas en Nebraska aan de beurt te zijn.
Ook daarna is er nog kans op onweer, maar te onduidelijk om details te geven.
Voor het weekend zijn er trouwens wel chasers die zich druk maken om de hoeveelheid vochtige lucht. Texas zelf is extreem droog geweest de laatste weken en alhoewel de oppervlakte dauwpunten de goede kant in lijken te gaan is de vochtige laag mogelijk erg dun. Dit kan er voor zorgen dat de buien niet op gang komen.
...DISCUSSION...
00Z GEFS/ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE EXPECTED EASTWARD EVOLUTION
OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE
INITIAL CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ON DAY
4/MONDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND
LOWER MO VALLEY. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE STALLED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND NORTH TX/SOUTH OK
VICINITY...WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHWARD
ACROSS OK/KS/MO ON MONDAY/DAY 4...ACCOMPANIED BY AROUND 60F
DEWPOINTS. WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/LARGE SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS AND AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR
SEVERE TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST SAT MAR 07 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...NW OK THROUGH SW...CNTRL AND NE KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 071951Z - 072215Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-23Z FROM SW OR S
CNTRL KS AND EXPAND NEWD DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP AS FAR SW AS NW OK...BUT INITIATION IN THIS REGION IS MORE
UNCERTAIN. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN MO SWWD THROUGH NE KS...SW KS
TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. DRYLINE EXTENDS THROUGH W TX
INTO THE OK PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE FRONT. MODIFIED CP
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS HAS ADVECTED
THROUGH WARM SECTOR BENEATH 8 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF FRONT THROUGH OK
AND KS WITH MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE EML HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO A CAPPING INVERSION OVER THIS REGION.
WRN EDGE OF MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK IS ADVANCING THROUGH CNTRL KS AND NW
OK. DEEP LAYER FLOW HAS INCREASED AND VEERED TO WLY BEHIND DRYLINE
ACROSS SW KS...THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES IN WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT IS EJECTING INTO NW KS. SHALLOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RESULTING DEEP MIXING IS EVIDENT FROM THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES. A FEW STORMS COULD INITIATE FROM NW OK INTO SW KS BY
21-22Z AS THIS ZONE OF MIXING BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WRN EDGE
OF MOIST AXIS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE
FARTHER NE ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED FRONT. PERSISTENT AND STRENGTHENING
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH
THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP AND PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL THROUGH NE KS.
BULK SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. SOME
STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE FRONT.
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM NW OK INTO SW KS WILL BE HIGHER BASED.
INITIAL THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL INCREASE TOWARD
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. | Gewijzigd: 27 januari 2017, 13:37 uur, door Joyce.s
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 45
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TOPEKA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SWRN KS AND DEVELOP/SPREAD QUICKLY ENEWD THROUGH
THE EVENING ALONG STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. AIR MASS IS ALREADY
MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
WEAKENING CINH NEAR THE FRONT OVER SWRN/CENTRAL KS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INTO FAST
MOVING LINES/CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. SHOULD SUPERCELLS
PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-135/I-35...WHERE GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE DURING
THE EVENING ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ. SOUTHEAST/EASTERN PORTIONS OF
WW MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH AT A LATER TIME SHOULD
THIS THREAT MATERIALIZE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
449 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
* UNTIL 530 PM CST.
* AT 446 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNDRIDGE...OR
10 MILES EAST OF HUTCHINSON...MOVING EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES!
* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HESSTON...MOUNDRIDGE...NORTH NEWTON. | Gewijzigd: 7 maart 2009, 23:56 uur, door Stormchazer
2228 1 W HUTCHINSON RENO KS 3807 9793 TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND 1/2 MILE WEST OF HWY 96 NEAR HUTCHINSON. (ICT)
2236 1 S HUTCHINSON AIRPORT RENO KS 3805 9787 HUTCHINSON TOWER OBSERVER REPORTS TORNADO 1 M SOUTH OF TOWER MOVING RAPIDLY EAST. (ICT)