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Seismic activity has increased slightly since past weekend and has been most prominent just east of Mt. Sýlingarfell. The location of the seismic activity is in an area which is considered to be the eastern tip of the magma reservoir which is centered beneath the Svartsengi-Þórbjörn area.  The current seismicity is similar to that observed days before previous volcanic eruptions in the area.

Therefore, IMO has updated the hazard assessment for the unrest area. Increased likelihood of a volcanic eruption and related hazards affects the assessment. Hazard levels have been raised in several zones. Even though the color of Zone 4 – Grindavík - remains unchanged, the hazards there have increased due to the possibility of lava flows. Same goes for Zone 1 – Svartsengi.

No significant deformation within Grindavík has been detected by GNSS or satellite data. It is however likely that new faults will be revealed when snow melts or precipitation causes soil, which might be covering faults, to be washed away.

If an eruption occurs, scientists estimate that magma will most likely propagate from the reservoir beneath the Svartsengi-Þórbjörn region towards Sundhnúkur crater row, resulting in lava fountaining and lava flows in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell. The primary signal of ascending magma is a sudden increase in seismic activity with many localized, small magnitude earthquakes. Considering the previous volcanic eruptions in the area, an eruption could start with very little warning (less than 30 minutes), depending on where magma reaches the surface on the Sundhnúkur crater row.  

• Eruption between Sýlingarfell and Stóra-Skógfell - As occurred on December 18, 2023 and February 8, 2024. 
• Precursor: Sudden, localized, and intense seismic activity with small magnitude earthquakes. Deformation over the magma dike (if a dike is intruded) and the Svartsengi magma reservoir 
• Very short warning time (less than 30 minutes) because a new dike propagation may not be required for magma to reach the surface. 
• Lava reaches Grindavík road in less than 4 hours.
  
  Eruption by Hagafell – As occurred on January 14, 2024.
• Precursor: Seismic activity with small magnitude earthquakes on the Sundhnúkur crater row, starting near Sýlingarfell and migrating south. Deformation over the magma dike and the Svartsengi magma reservoir
• Likely warning time is approximately 1-3 hours from the detection of the first earthquakes until the start of an eruption.
• Lava reaches the lava barriers around Grindavík within 1 hour.
• Magma intrusion, which reaches south of Hagafell, will likely cause significant fault movements in Grindavík
  
  Eruption inside of the lava barriers around Grindavík
• Seismic activity with small magnitude earthquakes on the Sundhnúkur crater row, starting near Sýlingarfell and migrating south.
• Deformation over the magma dike and the Svartsengi magma reservoir
• Probable warning time is between approximately 1-5 hours from the detection of the first earthquakes until the start of an eruption.
• It is possible that an eruptive fissure/s will open within Grindavík or the region just north of here (inside the barriers). Similar activity occurred on the 14th of January when a volcanic fissure opened just inside the outer perimeter of the town approximately 4 hours after an onset of the eruption near Hagafell.
• Magma intrusion, which reaches south of Grindavík, will cause significant fault movements in Grindavík.

Magma ondergronds tot stilstand gekomen, maar tweede poging op komst

Update Icelandic Met Office
March 5 at 11:20 am

Probable sequence of events for the next few days:

The volume of magma under Svartsengi continues to increase, which could end up with a new magma flow and even an eruption
An eruption could start at very short notice, even less than 30 minutes
An eruption is most likely to occur in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell
Seismic activity over the magma tunnel has been at its lowest since the magma run ended on Saturday. Rather, there is more activity at Fagradalsfjall, where about 20 earthquakes have been recorded in the last 24 hours.

Model calculations show that about 1.3 million cubic meters passed from the magma chamber under Svartsengi into the magma tunnel on Saturday, March 2. The magma tunnel that formed as a result was about 3 km long and reached from Stóra-Scógfell to Hagafell. The volume of magma that entered the magma tunnel in this event was therefore much smaller than in previous events where about 10 million cubic meters of magma formed the magma tunnel.

Continued landfall is being measured by GPS monitors after the magma intrusion on Saturday. Magma flow under Svartsengi therefore continues, and model calculations show that around half a million cubic meters of magma accumulates in a 24-hour period. In total, about 9.5 million cubic meters of magma have accumulated in the magma chamber under Svartsengi since the eruption on February 8.

Pressure in the magma chamber continues to build, and there is an increased chance of a new magma flow into the Sundhnúks crater series and even an eruption in the coming days.

Update IJslandse meteorologische & vulkanologische dienst
17. March at 18:40 UTC

Since 04:00 UTC today, the propagation of lava has slowed substantially. However, the eruption has not ended, and lava continues to be extruded from a 0.5-km-long fissure, as confirmed by web camera and drone imagery. A lava front extends to the west from Sundhnúkur crater row. This front inundated Grindavíkurvegur in the early hours of Sunday morning at around 00:30 UTC, making the road impassable.

Lava also travelled southwards, and it is now less than 250 m from Suðurstrandarvegur – the main road on the southern coast of the Reykjanes Peninsula. Between 10:15 and 16:30 UTC today, this lava front moved at an average speed of 12 m per hour. Assuming the same speed of movement, it will take the front an additional ~20 hours to reach the main road. In the event of the lava reaching the road, an additional 350 m of propagation would be needed before lava could enter the sea.

Potentiële risico's wanneer lava zee bereikt
In the event of lava interacting with seawater, there would be a range of volcanic hazards due to the sudden cooling of lava. Initially, these hazards would comprise localised tephra deposition (solid volcanic particles) and the formation of volcanic gases, principally hydrogen chloride (HCl). Within a radius of 0.5 km from the entry point into the sea, there would be potentially lethal health hazards. With increasing distance, the severity of the volcanic hazards decreases over a radius of 3 km. Beyond that distance, health hazards due to gas pollution would be minor in nature.

Based on the development of the eruption today, our assessment is that lava flow into the sea is an unlikely scenario. However, until the eruption ends, and lava propagation stops entirely, it remains an outcome to consider for hazard assessment purposes. Assuming the same speed of movement (12 m per hour), it would take the southern lava front two days to reach the coastline.

Lava komt langzaam tot stilstand

Uitbarsting toont zich onvoorspelbaar: lange uitbarsting mogelijk?

Uitbarsting stabiel, lava stroomt langs lavadijk, uitbarsting niet veilig voor toeristen

Vedur.is - update 22 maart
Volcanic activity at the eruption sites near Sundhnúkur remains stable. There is little to no earthquake activity in the dike or its vicinity. Land uplift in the area around Svartsengi has been very slight since the dike intrusion and subsequent eruption began on March 16. This suggests that less magma is accumulating beneath Svartsengi and is instead flowing more directly out of the reservoir through the eruptive fissures. However, there may be indications that uplift has increased in Svartsengi since then, but it cannot be confirmed at this point. Measurements in the coming days will shed more light on this development.
https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/volcanic-unrest-grindavik